SHFE Tin Prices Remain High Amid Market Caution from Downstream Enterprises

Tin Futures Hold Steady in Night Session

During the night session on November 3, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin contract (SN2512) opened higher and maintained its elevated levels, closing at 285,000 yuan per metric ton, marking a 0.44% increase from the previous trading day. Market participants reported that downstream enterprises remain cautious, reflecting widespread fear of high tin prices.

Macro Trends Supporting Tin Market Dynamics

Several macroeconomic factors influenced tin trading:

• Automotive Sector: SERES reported strong October sales, reaching 51,500 NEVs, a 42.89% YoY increase. The main car models contributed 48,800 units, up 43.83% YoY, while other models declined 60.75% YoY. Total cumulative NEV sales in 2025 are 356,100 units, up 0.95% YoY.

• Corporate Performance: The China Association of Publicly Listed Firms revealed that in Q1–Q3 2025, 17 out of 19 industries achieved profitability, and advanced manufacturing sectors saw notable growth in AI data storage and all-solid-state batteries.

• Global Resource Markets: Disruptions in core materials like rare earths and superhard materials drove revenue growth in these sectors, contributing to supply uncertainties impacting tin prices.

Supply and Demand Fundamentals

• Supply Constraints: Tin ore output in major producing areas, including Yunnan, remains tight, with smelters expected to maintain stable production in November.

• Demand Weakness: Consumer electronics and home appliance sectors exhibit weaker demand, leading to cautious downstream purchases. High tin prices continue to suppress actual consumption, while emerging sectors such as AI computing and PV installations contribute marginally to demand.

Spot Market Overview

Last week, the tin ingot spot market displayed a “price without volume” trend, with sluggish trading activity. Despite elevated prices, most transactions were limited to traders, while end-users only replenished essential stock. Spot prices often required discounts against offered prices to close deals, indicating an overall atmosphere of fear and cautious trading.

Industry Insight: Tinplate Packaging Perspective

From a tinplate packaging manufacturer’s view, high tin prices directly impact production costs for packaging materials used in food, beverages, and industrial products. Manufacturers often face the challenge of balancing raw material costs with customer pricing expectations. Currently, many producers are strategically optimizing inventory and production schedules to mitigate cost pressures, while exploring eco-friendly and lightweight tinplate alternatives to reduce material consumption without compromising quality.